Thursday, 21 May 2015

Stories Of Last Moment Intuition, Shyness and Embarrassment

Both UK and Finland recently voted for conservative right-wing governments. In the second and last part of the Institute’s election-related mini series Veera Voutilainen asks what happened. Researchers of political behaviour from both countries analyse what the election decisions tell in terms of diversity and gender balance.

                           
Sajid Javid is a proud British-born son of an immigrant bus driver. He was raised in tough neighbourhoods and made the most of state schools to win a place at Exeter University. Sajid then went on, at the age of 24, to become the youngest Vice President in the history of Chase Manhattan Bank and was later headhunted by Deutsche Bank to help raise investment for developing countries.
British, Muslim and son of a bus driver, the Guardian has described David Cameron’s new business secretary Sajid Javid as “an erudite answer to the modern Tory identity crisis. Perhaps”. The text above is from his website.
Under the elections, David Cameron highlighted in his speeches how the Conservative party offers ideological shelter for a wider group of people than just the white males with backgrounds in either business or law. After the general elections, various British media found a reason to celebrate from a similar source of joy: the record-breaking diversity of May 2015.
After the elections, the number of minority-ethnic MPs has risen to 41 from 27 in 2010 and nearly a third of the MPs are now female. Despite that, Dr Jennifer Hudson, Senior Lecturer at University College London, argues we should be tempered in celebrating these new records.
"Parliament is still some way from being representative of the public it serves," she says. 

"I’m a bit disappointed in the sense that there was a lot of potential for 2015 to be a watershed election for women and BME candidates. The reason why I say a little bit disappointed is because parliament isn’t as diverse as it could be.”


Hold on… for another generation
Hudson, who works in a joint project between University College London and Birkbeck, University of London along with her colleague Dr Rosie Campbell, has investigated biographical, socio-demographic and electoral data on candidates and MPs from 1945 to 2015.
She says parties have traditionally had women candidates and minority ethnic candidates, but they wouldn’t be given any kind of possibility of being elected.


The poor achievement of the Labour Party shows in the share of women, as they are the only ones using the all women shortlists (AWS). They had set more than half of their women candidates on winnable seats.

After the 2015 election, 29% of MPs are women, compared to 23% in 2010. 191 women were elected at the 2015 General election, 44 more than in 2010.


Although 191 is undeniably the highest ever number of women in the House of Commons, Hudson says she would find it a bit early to actually celebrate increasing diversity and gender balance.

“Even though it’s a genuine leap, we are not even the third yet,” she says.


We are, in fact, still a generation away from a situation that would justify us to send invitations to the balance party.


“That’s my daughter being an older woman before we can see these kinds of games being made.”

In Finland, 41,5% of the MP’s are female after the general elections of April. The share has remained quite the same since 2011. Erkka Railo, researcher with the Centre for Parliamentary Studies in Turku, points out the novelty is, in turn, the amount of younger MPs.

“We will have no less than 14 under 30-year-old MPs,” he says. “In the elections before, only four under 30-year-olds got elected.”

The Tory narrative

“What was dismissed was the kind of Tory narrative: the fact that they had repeated the competence, how ‘you can trust us to finish the job on the economy’,” Hudson says.


“These were all things they never deviated from.”


As well as the House of Commons in the UK, the parliament of Finland became noticeably conservative. The government negotiations are now taking place between the Centre Party, the Finns Party and the National Coalition Party.


The difficult economic situation could be seen clearly in the way Finns voted.


“Historically, Finns have experienced the promise of cutting down on public spending as honest talk and a sign of credible economic policy. This is what happened again: the parties promising hard cuts on public expenses were the ones who eventually succeeded in the elections,” Railo says.


“Based on earlier information, we can assume the victory of non-socialist parties will bring wealthier MPs.”


Although, at least for David Cameron, it does seem important to proclaim his party isn’t only for the privileged. As an example the co-author at the parliamentary candidates project Rosie Campbell mentions the strong rhetorics in connection with the narrative of the “son of an immigrant bus driver”, the former investment banker Sajid Javid.
“He [David Cameron] tries to convince people that they don’t come from only privileged, aristocratic backgrounds,” Campbell says.


5% of Conservative has BME background, 10% of Labour and 2% of Scottish National Party.


Polls told a different truth

In the UK, the exit polls – measuring by asking people how they just voted – showed a shockingly different result in comparison with the polls that had asked people to predict how they would vote in the future.


The Conservatives won 330 seats, Labour won 232, and the SNP 56.


“I think it isn’t exceptional in the history of British policy, it’s exceptional because of the polls in the run up,” Campbell says.


Perhaps people are, in addition to shy, also unsure.


“Shy or embarrassed, I don’t know which one is right,” Hudson says. “One thing I’ve been wondering, though: why wouldn’t have Ukip [UK independence] party supporters have been equally shy?”


Campbell, in turn, wonders if we think differently when we are really forced to make a decision. Which is exactly what happens at the voting station.


She tells herself how she changed her mind on the last minute.


“You see, I live in a very safe seat, so it doesn’t really matter who I vote for. I still want to vote for the person who I think is the right one.”


Rosie Campbell, Jennifer Hudson and Erkka Railo met in Helsinki in an open discussion event organised by the Institute on 9 April. The event was part of the Finnish Institute’s Society programme, directed by Antti Halonen. 

The writer of this text is the Institute’s communications assistant, who changed her mind on the doorstep of the Finnish embassy in London, ending up voting a talented researcher (and young woman) from Helsinki.


Follow the UK Parliamentary Candidates project here.
Read the first one of our two election blog posts here.